According to new data from IDC, worldwide PC shipments surged 9.4% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, reaching 75.8 million units up from 64.9 million in the previous quarter. It’s a resurgence that few predicted, reaffirming that the so-called “mature” PC market still has some fight left.
But while the top-line figures paint a picture of strong recovery, the real story lies beneath the surface in the shifting regional dynamics, the ripple effects of software deadlines, and the structural changes defining how tech ecosystems evolve around the world.
Asia-Pacific Powers the Rebound
The Asia-Pacific region was the standout performer this quarter. Japan and China led with double-digit shipment growth, fueled by large-scale public procurement initiatives especially in education.
In Japan, the GIGA School program and renewed government stimulus drove massive demand, while in China, local OEMs benefited from both domestic refresh cycles and spillover demand from global supply chain adjustments.
Meanwhile, North America’s recovery was more subdued. Import tariffs, cautious consumer spending, and earlier inventory frontloading slowed momentum. According to Jean Philippe Bouchard, IDC’s vice president of Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers, “While the entire market is continuing on a strong year, driven by the Windows 11 transition and ageing devices, regional outcomes are diverging. The U.S. market remains constrained by tariff shocks and macroeconomic uncertainty factors likely to extend into 2026.”
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Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) posted moderate gains, thanks to enterprise refresh cycles and public-sector demand. However, growth remains sensitive to pricing pressures and currency fluctuations a sign that the rebound is uneven across the globe.
The Windows 10 Deadline Effect
One of the biggest drivers of Q3’s shipment surge is the looming end-of-support for Windows 10, scheduled for October 2025.
That deadline has created a wave of urgency as businesses and consumers face a choice: upgrade to Windows 11, replace ageing hardware, or pay for Microsoft’s costly Extended Security Updates (ESU).
In emerging economies where older PCs are still widespread the deadline has become a hard anchor for procurement cycles. Schools, governments, and enterprises are all accelerating refresh plans before the clock runs out.
Still, not everyone is rushing. Enterprises with complex legacy systems are cautious, opting to stretch lifecycles or invest in ESUs rather than rush upgrades. By contrast, education agencies and public institutions often bound by fiscal-year budgets have seen sharp bursts in demand as refresh deadlines align with stimulus funding.
The AI PC Hype: Real or Just Marketing?
This year also saw the rise of so-called “AI PCs” devices branded with built-in accelerators and “Copilot+” features that promise next-gen computing experiences.
But while high end marketing has captivated headlines, analysts say the real bulk of Q3’s shipment growth came from replacement cycles, not innovation.
In most developing markets, buyers still prioritize cost efficiency, durability, and compatibility over AI-enhanced performance.
“The PC rebound is more about necessity than novelty,” said one analyst familiar with IDC’s research. “The AI narrative is exciting, but the real driver remains fleet renewal.”
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Lenovo Extends Its Lead
Lenovo once again claimed the top spot among global PC vendors, shipping 19.4 million units in Q3 — a robust 17.3% increase year-on-year. HP held steady in second place, while Dell, Apple, and ASUS each saw gains in their respective niches.
The vendor landscape remains consolidated, but competition is heating up as brands experiment with design refreshes, hybrid device formats, and localized pricing models to attract emerging-market buyers.
Implications for Emerging Markets
For startups, system integrators, and local OEMs in Africa, Southeast Asia, and Latin America, the global PC rebound is both an opportunity and a warning.
On one hand, renewed device demand opens doors for service-oriented innovation from fleet management and device leasing to cybersecurity, migration automation, and analytics solutions. The ongoing refresh cycle could create ripple effects across support ecosystems.
On the other hand, global growth doesn’t automatically translate into local prosperity. Currency instability, import duties, and low purchasing power remain significant barriers. Without strong government or institutional procurement programs, many developing markets risk being left behind.
For local startups, the key is to align with public procurement windows and offer value-added services such as localized content, financing options, and bundled software strategies that can unlock outsized opportunities.
A Market Redefined by Software, Policy, and Timing
If one theme defines this quarter’s data, it’s that the PC market is no longer driven by consumers alone. Growth now hinges on software lifecycles, policy decisions, and macroeconomic timing.
Windows 11, tariff realignments, and education-sector procurement have become the new engines of PC demand. Whether this momentum carries into 2026 will depend on how well vendors balance inventory, pricing, and innovation in an increasingly fragmented global market.
For now, one thing is clear: the PC isn’t dead it’s just evolving.
